Nothing truly revolutionary is ever predicted because that is what makes it revolutionary.

John D. Barrow forecasts the future

• 18 November 2006

Cosmologists have much to look forward to: the direct detection of dark matter and gravitational waves, the extraction of more secrets of the early universe, the discovery of the cosmic neutrino background, possibly an exploding black hole, understanding dark energy, decisive evidence for or against the existence of other dimensions of space, new forces of nature and the possibility of time travel; perhaps even nano-sized space probes. I could go on.

All this is exciting, but take a moment to think back 50 years and look forwards. None of the greatest discoveries in the astronomical sciences were foreseen. The transformation in the practice of science brought about by the web is barely 30 years old. No one predicted it. Pulsars, quasars, gamma-ray bursts, the standard model of particle physics, the isotropy of the microwave background, strings and dark energy were equally unexpected. None of these was predicted 50 years ago.

Perhaps scientists are as blinkered as the politicians and economists who failed to foresee the fall of the Iron Curtain and the climatic implications of industrialisation. Yet this myopia may not be a fault. Perhaps it is a touchstone. If you can foresee what is going to happen in your field over the next 50 years then maybe it is mined out, or lacking what it takes to attract the brightest minds. Nothing truly revolutionary is ever predicted because that is what makes it revolutionary.