Sunday, December 31, 2006

The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins - Review by Mary Midgley


Chris Street edits in bold.

Mary Midgley has been a long time critic (since 1978) of Richard Dawkins.

  • 07 October 2006
  • Mary Midgley

THIS book is one of many that celebrate an allegedly bitter war between Science and Religion, two epic figures representing rival forces between which we must choose.

Different people understand this "war" differently. In the US, the default attitude (that of normal people) is increasingly assumed to be Religion, because a scientific or Darwinian world view is still taken to mean social Darwinism, the brash, brutal doctrine of the survival of the fittest that Herbert Spencer taught so successfully in the US and which deeply influenced the Nazis. In recent times, the sociobiological rhetoric of "selfishness" and "ruthlessness" in natural selection has served to reinforce this impression of meaningless brutality, leaving religion as the only tolerable option.

In the Middle East, however, talk of a scientific or Darwinian attitude stands for something different but no less hateful. It means primarily western materialism: the brash, greedy, uncaring lifestyle of people whose rulers trampled over oriental cultures and who trample them with increasing vigour today. Traditional religion appears as the only alternative to this odious attitude.

Thus, once the scene is polarised, once the two vast abstractions are set up, their ideologies turn the debate into incurable conflict. In that spirit, the preface of this book cries out for the abolition of the enemy: "Imagine, with John Lennon, a world with no religion. Imagine no suicide bombers, no 9/11, no 7/7, no Crusades, no Gunpowder Plot..."

These examples are, of course, endless, and the thought that removing religion would end such large-scale atrocities accounts in large part for the rise of anti-religious movements. However, the regimes they gave birth to during the 20th century included the governments of Nazi Germany, Pol Pot's Cambodia and Stalin's Russia. It is still not clear how it was possible for these regimes to commit the three most monstrous crimes of the epoch, but what does emerge is that removing religion had not helped at all. The roots of great crimes plainly lie far deeper than the doctrines people use to justify them.

In any culture, rogues defend their actions by professing whatever standards their society respects. Until recently, of course, Christianity was the norm in the west, but Marxism and fascism proved just as effective. Science, too, it turns out, can easily be used this way, as both Germany's and South Africa's justification of racism demonstrates. Religion is not really relevant at all, unless we carefully define "religion" to link it necessarily with atrocities.

This, of course, is the tendency of Dawkins's book. Dawkins is no rogue though; indeed, he is sincere in regarding God and religion the enemies of rationality - and in arguing that they are linked to atrocity to such an extent that they must be resisted. So much so that he is forced to assert that faiths which do not use the concept of God, such as Buddhism, Confucianism and Taoism, are not really religions at all. He also works hard to exclude scientists, such as Einstein, who firmly and repeatedly used religious language to express what are plainly central elements in their thought, from the taint of religion.

Dawkins is irritated by the Einstein phenomenon, and complains of a "confused and confusing willingness to label as 'religion' the pantheistic reverence which many of us share with its most distinguished exponent, Albert Einstein". He insists that this reverence has "no connection with supernatural belief". Pantheism, however, is unmistakably a religious attitude. And when, like Einstein, you speak of an immanent god, a divinity pervading the world, and when, like Spinoza, you equate God and Nature, words such as "supernatural" do not mean much.

Einstein understood this well. His language is only surprising if you assume, as Dawkins seems to, that science is the only possible source of knowledge. Thus in quoting Martin Rees's remark that such questions as why anything exists lie "beyond science", he simply cannot see what this might mean.

Similarly, when he cites NOMA - "nonoverlapping magisteria", the acronym coined by Stephen Jay Gould to describe how, in his view, science and religion could not comment on each other's sphere - and Freeman Dyson's description of himself as "one of the multitude of Christians who do not care much for the doctrine of the Trinity or the historical truth of the gospels", Dawkins declares flatly that they cannot mean what they say. As scientists, they must be atheists.

It seems not to have struck Dawkins that academic science is only a small, specialised, dependent part of what anybody knows. Most human knowledge is tacit knowledge - habitual assumptions, constantly updated and checked by experience, but far too general and informal ever to be fully tested. We assume, for instance, that nature will go on being regular, that other people are conscious and that their testimony can generally be trusted. Without such assumptions neither science nor any other study could ever get off the ground, and nor could everyday life.

When we build on these foundations we necessarily use imaginative structures - powerful ideas which can be called myths, which are not lies, but graphic thought-patterns that shape and guide our thinking. This is not irrational: the process of using these structures is a necessary preparation for reasoning. Thus the selfish gene is a powerful idea, so are the Science-Religion war, Gaia, natural selection, progress, and the hidden hand of the market.

With the largest, most puzzling questions, we have no choice but to proceed in mythical language which cannot be explained in detail at all, but which serves (as Einstein's did) to indicate what sort of spiritual universe we perceive ourselves to be living in. This is the province of religion. Adding God is not, as Dawkins thinks, adding an illicit extra item to the cosmos, it is perceiving the whole thing differently.

For a long time, this kind of language was reasonably well understood. Since the mid-19th century, however, there has been a disastrous attempt to get rid of it, keeping only literal statements of fact. This is, of course, the root of religious Christian fundamentalism, which tries, absurdly, to treat the whole of that strange compilation, the Bible, as literal fact. Yet in so doing it is only responding to a less obvious fundamentalism on the scientistic side, which claims that our knowledge reduces to one fundamental form - the literal statements of science. Both extremes show a similarly crass refusal to admit the complexity of life.

Dawkins is, of course, quite right to express horror at Biblical fundamentalism, especially in the neocon form that centres on the book of Revelation. But it is not possible to attack this target properly while also conducting a wider, cluster-bomb onslaught on everything that can be called religion. Since this particular bad form of religion is spreading rapidly in the world, we urgently need to understand it: not just to denounce it but to grasp much better than we do now why people find it attractive. It is not enough to say, as Dawkins does, that they are being childish.

We urgently need to understand fundamentalism

We also need to ask why they have found the other attitudes that are open to them inadequate. As I have suggested, this means becoming more aware of the inadequacies of our own way of life, which are obvious to them and which put them off the opinions that we profess. What we need, in fact, is a bit more self-knowledge.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 50-51

European Guidelines on CardioVascualar Disease











Exec summary - "European Guidelines on Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in clinical practice" - download pdf (from our server) or here Download a series of excellent slides (updated Dec 2003).

This new model for total risk estimation based on the SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) system.

The SCORE risk assessment is derived from a large dataset of prospective European studies and predicts fatal atherosclerotic CVD events over a ten year period.

This risk estimation is based on the following risk factors: gender, age, smoking, systolic blood pressure and total cholesterol. The threshold for high risk based on fatal cardiovascular events is defined as "higher than 5%" , instead of the previous "higher than 20%" using a composite coronary endpoint.

Using HeartScore total CVD risk can also be projected to age 60 which may be of particular importance for guiding young adults, at the age of 20 or 30, at low absolute risk, but already with an unhealthy risk profile, which will put them at much higher risk when they grow older.

Relative risk can also be estimated from the pie charts. You can read more about the SCORE project in European Heart Journal, 2003, 24; 987-1003. source: European Society of Cardiology

Google Scholar





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Try it!

Statins to reduce heart attacks or strokes

Chris Street edits in bold.

New Scientist magazine (7th October 2006) reports on the use of Statins to reduce heart attacks or strokes.

"So you think you're healthy? You are in your 40s, feel right as rain, normal blood pressure, normal cholesterol, pretty good diet, occasional exercise. How would you react if your doctor suggested you take a powerful drug every day for the rest of your life? The drug, known as a statin, will lower your cholesterol even further and reduce your risk of a heart attack or stroke.

According to one recent estimate, most men and many women over 40 could benefit from the drugs.

If you are worried about side effects, your doctor will reassure you that a meta-analysis that pooled data from 14 trials involving more than 90,000 people shows the treatment is very safe.

The same study suggests that even if your cholesterol level is normal, taking a statin can still reduce your cardiovascular risk. And the greater your risk - if you smoke, suffer from high blood pressure or diabetes, or have a family history of heart disease, for example - the greater the potential benefits."

New Scientist says "Lowering cholesterol is beneficial in pretty much everyone who has been studied," says Colin Baigent, who coordinated the meta-analysis by the Clinical Trial Service Unit (CTSU) at the University of Oxford. "It doesn't really matter what the cholesterol level is. It could be average or even low, but if you reduce it even further in a person who is at high risk you get benefits." Statins also have anti-inflammatory properties, and have shown promising results when used to treat diseases like rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer's. Some research even suggests they can help tackle viral infections such as hepatitis C and HIV.

Can any drug really be that good? As enthusiastic doctors put ever more people on statins, sceptics are warning that we don't know enough about the possible adverse effects of taking them over a lifetime.

Others claim that statins' potency against heart disease has little to do with lowering cholesterol and instead results from their anti-inflammatory properties, leading some to dismiss them as "expensive aspirin". So could the rush to put millions more people on statins be a costly mistake?"

"The association between cholesterol, its transport in the bloodstream by a protein called low-density lipoprotein and heart disease is fairly well established. Cholesterol in the form of LDL, so-called "bad cholesterol", can infiltrate the walls of coronary arteries, contributing to the formation of a fibrous plug of immune cells called a plaque. If this ruptures it can trigger the formation of a blood clot that blocks the artery and starves the heart of oxygen - a heart attack, in other words. Equally disastrously, the clot can break free and block arteries in the brain, triggering a stroke."

"Some doctors, however, are alarmed by the trend towards dishing out statins to millions more people and giving higher dosages to lower cholesterol even further. They say the benefits for those who do not already have heart disease are small, while the potential risks are largely unknown. "What price should you pay for a modest effect?" Sutter asks. "The price shouldn't be very high because the effect is weak at best." A 20 per cent reduction in cardiovascular risk may sound impressive, but it doesn't look quite as good when you realise what it means for each individual: if your risk of having a heart attack over the next five years is 5 per cent, say, then taking statins will reduce it only to 4 per cent."

"Sutter and others say that statin researchers have failed to report adverse effects in enough detail to allow doctors and patients to weigh the potential costs against the benefits. "There's no good reporting of adverse effects at high doses and very modest reporting even at moderate doses," Sutter says. "If you are prescribed a statin, the doctor expects you to take it for the rest of your life," says Uffe Ravnskov, an independent researcher and former hospital doctor based in Lund, Sweden, who runs The International Network of Cholesterol Skeptics. He claims almost half of patients have adverse effects."

"Alleged side effects include memory loss, extreme irritability, aggression, suicidal impulses and impotence. Evidence for these remains sketchy, however, coming from small trials and case studies. Statins do cause liver damage in around 1 per cent of patients, but this should be picked up by routine liver function tests and can be reversed by coming off the drugs. It is also clear that statins can damage muscles. As many as a fifth of people taking the drugs in trials say they experience some muscle weakness or pain, and exercise seems to make things worse. These symptoms are commonplace anyway in middle-aged and elderly people, however, and a similar number of patients taking a placebo also report them. So it is difficult to determine the exact extent of the problem. "

"In very rare cases statins cause rhabdomyolysis, a severe form of muscle damage in which the breakdown products cause kidney failure. The rate was especially high with cerivastatin (Baycol), which caused 50 deaths and was withdrawn in 2001. "

"Confusingly, some small studies have hinted that statins increase the risk of cancer while others suggest they may guard against it. The CTSU meta-analysis found no association between cancer and statins, and a similarly large study from the US, which looked at 26 trials involving 87,000 patients, also found no link."

"Most trials, though, have lasted only five years or less. For some this leaves lingering doubts. "You don't get lung cancer after smoking for 10 years; it takes much longer to show up," Ravnskov points out. "Heavy smokers get lung cancer in their 50s and 60s and they have smoked for decades before that." Nevertheless, White, who led the US study, is confident that even after five years some signs of increased cancer risk would show up in trials. "Within the period we were looking at you should at least have started to see some trends," he says. "

"The crucial issue now facing policy-makers is how and where to draw the line that defines who should be offered statins. In the US and Canada, prescribing guidelines focus on lowering cholesterol below certain thresholds, depending on the individual's overall risk of a heart attack or stroke. The lowering of the US target levels in 2004, which is leading to millions more people being put on statins, sparked controversy when it was revealed that eight out of the nine experts involved had ties to statin manufacturers. "

"In Australia, New Zealand and the UK, the emphasis is on treating those with the highest overall risk rather than on cholesterol targets. This year, a Canadian study that modelled the effects of applying the various guidelines concluded that the high-risk approach is more effective in terms of number of lives saved per number treated (BMJ, vol 329, p 529). It found, for instance, that applying the US guidelines would result in twice as many people taking statins as the New Zealand guidelines without preventing any more deaths. "

"Yet even the more conservative guidelines will lead to millions more people taking statins for the rest of their lives, often starting younger or being given higher doses. You could be one of them. If the advocates of statins are right, this policy will come to be seen as a triumph for preventative medicine, saving tens of thousands of lives. If the critics are right, for those with a low risk of heart disease statins could do more harm than good. Which will you bet your life on when your doctor mentions the s-word? "

Biomarkers that can predict a long life

Chris Street edits in bold.

My Action: Test for CRP, IL-6, fibrinogen, EPI and NE etc

What biochemicals can predict how long I will live?


Full Review:
"Combinations of biomarkers predictive of laterlife mortality" in PNAS September 19th 2006 vol. 103 no. 38, Gruenewald et al. Download the full article pdf (save $10) - Recommended.

13 biomarkers, reflecting activity in several biological systems predict death or ill health in older adults.

Neuroendocrine stress hormones
Nerve cells (Neuroendocrine glands) produce four hormones that are released under conditions of stress.

Immune activity

  • C-reactive protein (CRP)
    • a marker of inflammation. High levels indicate risk of developing fatty deposits on inner walls of arteries which can lead to heart attacks.
  • Fibrinogen
    • Fibrin made from fibrinogen is a protein involved in clotting of blood
  • Interleukin 6 (IL-6)
    • is a cytokine secreted by T cells and macrophages to stimulate immune response to trauma, especially burns or other tissue damage leading to inflammation.
  • Albumin
    • most abundant protein in human blood plasma. High levels is a sign of severe dehydration. Low levels can be caused by malnutrition, malabsorption, liver disease, etc.

Cardiovascular functioning

Metabolic activity

Aims:-

  • (i) identify combinations of biomarkers and their zones of values associated with high levels of mortality risk in older men and women
  • (ii) examine whether biomarkers differ between men and women
  • (iii) introduce prediction rules that are based on conjunctions of biomarker conditions.
A secondary aim is to present recursive partitioning (RP) that allows for identification of combinations of biomarkers and their value zones.

Throughout, the focus is on identifying subclinical levels of biomarkers that characterize high-risk (HR) conditions, because such knowledge has the potential to contribute to preventive interventions that might prolong life beyond what is expected on the basis of current clinical risk criteria.

Biomarkers were selected for use in analyses if the biomarker was:-
  • a primary mediator of a biological regulatory system responsive to internal or external challenges (e.g., sympathetic nervous system hormones and inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-6)
  • the biomarker was known to exhibit change in response to interaction with a primary mediator (e.g., CRP production in response to IL-6).
  • The remaining measures were selected to represent secondary outcomes of these mediating processes.


For example, a combination of high levels of NE, CRP, and EPI led to a subgroup of 30 male participants (terminal node 12 in Fig. 1) with a mortality rate of 93.3% within the group. A second group of male participants (terminal node 9) with a high mortality rate (83.3%) is characterized by a combination of biomarkers that includes NE levels in a moderate range, high levels of IL-6, and low levels of HDL cholesterol.

Results
Each biomarker for male and female participants are presented in Table 1.



Recursive Partitioning Forests and Mortality Prediction.




Discussion

In men, markers of the endocrine and immune systems were commonly represented in HR mortality pathways, with a lesser role for indicators of the cardiovascular and metabolic systems. Fewer HR pathways were identified in women, but a range of biomarkers was present, including blood pressure, inflammatory markers, DHEA, and HbA1c.

With a focus on prevention, it may be useful to include assays on biomarkers such as CRP, IL-6, fibrinogen, EPI, and NE as part of a standard physical examination.

A prediction rule for mortality, using a single tree, was specified as follows: predict dead within 12 years of baseline if the individual has biomarker conditions as specified by a pathway into a terminal node with mortality rate 70% (males) or 60% (females).

Water on Mars?


A Year of Extraterrestrial Fountains and Flows
Credit: MGS, MSSS, JPL, NASA

Explanation: The past year was extraordinary for the discovery of extraterrestrial fountains and flows -- some offering new potential in the search for liquid water and the origin of life beyond planet Earth.. Increased evidence was uncovered that fountains spurt not only from Saturn's moon Enceladus, but from the dunes of Mars as well. Lakes were found on Saturn's moon Titan, and the residual of a flowing liquid was discovered on the walls of Martian craters. The diverse Solar System fluidity may involve forms of slushy water-ice, methane, or sublimating carbon dioxide. Pictured above, the light-colored path below the image center is hypothesized to have been created sometime in just the past few years by liquid water flowing across the surface of Mars.

Xmas weight gain

Over Xmas I've gained 1.4 pounds. To be expected!