reposted from: gasoline.com via Clipmarks
my: highlights / emphasis / key points / comments
Weather and climate are news. As concern grows about extreme weather and climate change, scientists worry that we could lose sight of the science. On Saturday 17th March 2007 come and meet the experts whose forecasts shape policy.
The day will feature panel and audience discussions on a range of weather and climate issues. There will be a free buffet lunch, during which Peter Gibbs, BBC weather presenter, will read the weather for May bank holiday 2080 and climateprediction.net (the BBC climate change experiment) will demonstrate the world’s largest experiment in climate forecasting. To reserve a place, e-mail Sarah Crossman or call on 020 7478 4380.
Speakers include:
Panel and audience discussion will include:
How are weather and climate predictions developed?
What we know about predicting the weather?
How do meteorologists make observations?
How is the weather modelled?
What do their forecasts mean?
Why are forecasts sometimes wrong?
Leading experts on hurricanes, severe winds and flash floods explain why they aren’t right all the time!
Predicting the future
How will global warming affect the UK?
Will weather become less predictable?
What are the dangers of climate change?
reposted from: senseaboutscience.org via bbc
my: highlights / emphasis / key points / comments
| By Pallab Ghosh Science correspondent, BBC News |
Professors Paul Hardaker and Chris Collier, both Royal Meteorological Society figures, are voicing their concern at a conference in Oxford.
They say some researchers make claims about possible future impacts that cannot be justified by the science.
The pair believe this damages the credibility of all climate scientists.
They think catastrophism and the "Hollywoodisation" of weather and climate only work to create confusion in the public mind.
They argue for a more sober and reasoned explanation of the uncertainties about possible future changes in the Earth's climate.
I've no doubt that global warming is occurring, but we don't want to undermine that case by crying wolf 
Professor Chris Collier 
As an example, they point to a recent statement from one of the foremost US science bodies - the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
The association released a strongly worded statement at its last annual meeting in San Francisco in February which said: "As expected, intensification of droughts, heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and severe storms is occurring, with a mounting toll on vulnerable ecosystems and societies.
"These events are early warning signs of even more devastating damage to come, some of which will be irreversible."
According to Professors Hardaker and Collier, this may well turn out to be true, but convincing evidence to back the claims has not yet emerged.
"It's certainly a very strong statement," Professor Collier told BBC News.
"I suspect it refers to evidence that hurricanes have increased as a result of global warming; but to make the blanket assumption that all extreme events are increasing is a bit too early yet."
'Scientific basis'
A former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, Professor Collier is concerned that the serious message about the real risks posed by global warming could be undermined by making premature claims.
"I think there is a good chance of that," he said. "We must guard against that - it would be very damaging.
"I've no doubt that global warming is occurring, but we don't want to undermine that case by crying wolf."
This view is shared by Professor Hardaker, the society's chief executive.
We feel that the recent consensus statement of the AAAS Board of Directors speaks for itself and stands on its own
AAAS
"Organisations have been guilty of overplaying the message," he says.
"There's no evidence to show we're all due for very short-term devastating impacts as a result of global warming; so I think these statements can be dangerous where you mix in the science with unscientific assumptions."
The AAAS said it would not be commenting directly on the professors' remarks.
"We feel that the recent consensus statement of the AAAS Board of Directors speaks for itself and stands on its own," a spokesperson explained.
"The AAAS Board statement references (at the end), the scientific basis upon which the conclusions are based, including the joint National Academies' statement and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."
The 'right thing'
Professor Hardaker also believes that overblown statements play into the hands of those who say that scientists are wrong on climate change - that global warming is a myth.
"I think we do have to be careful as scientists not to overstate the case because it does damage the credibility of the many other things that we have greater certainty about," he said.
"We have to stick to what the science is telling us; and I don't think making that sound more sensational, or more sexy, because it gets us more newspaper columns, is the right thing for us to be doing.
"We have to let the science argument win out."
The pair have contributed to a pamphlet called Making Sense of the Weather and Climate, which will be presented on Saturday at the Garden Quadrangle Auditorium at St John's College, Oxford.
The AAAS position on climate can be read on the organisation's website.
American Association for the Advancement of Science - click for statement on Climate Change.
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.
Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years.
The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a critical greenhouse gas, is higher than it has been for at least 650,000 years. The average temperature of the Earth is heading for levels not experienced for millions of years. Scientific predictions of the impacts of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and deforestation match observed changes.
As expected, intensification of droughts, heat waves, floods, wildfires, and severe storms is occurring, with a mounting toll on vulnerable ecosystems and societies. These events are early warning signs of even more devastating damage to come, some of which will be irreversible.
Delaying action to address climate change will increase the environmental and societal consequences as well as the costs. The longer we wait to tackle climate change, the harder and more expensive the task will be.
History provides many examples of society confronting grave threats by mobilizing knowledge and promoting innovation. We need an aggressive research, development and deployment effort to transform the existing and future energy systems of the world away from technologies that emit greenhouse gases. Developing clean energy technologies will provide economic opportunities and ensure future energy supplies.
In addition to rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential that we develop strategies to adapt to ongoing changes and make communities more resilient to future changes. The growing torrent of information presents a clear message: we are already experiencing global climate change. It is time to muster the political will for concerted action. Stronger leadership at all levels is needed. The time is now. We must rise to the challenge. We owe this to future generations.
best week for months. And All Day Breakfast lunch yesterday (rest of week was bananas and oranges!).
Hard run with Jazzie on Thursday am helps cancels out the Pasta with Dad and Sharon later.
