Monday, February 05, 2007

The Goldilocks Enigma - review by Inayat Bunglawala


Is life just an accident? A new book examines a variety of theories about the universe.

February 5, 2007 02:15 PM

In his latest book, the scientist and writer, Paul Davies, takes a look at why - like Goldilocks' porridge - the laws of physics appear to be "just right" for life to exist in the universe.

reposted from: Guardian
my highlights / emphasis / edits

If certain physical constants such as Newton's gravitational constant, G, or the value of the strong and electromagnetic forces in atomic nuclei, were only very slightly different from what they actually are, Davies says that the universe would have been quite unsuitable to support any form of life. Currently, there is no evidence that their values are anything other than a series of remarkable coincidences and it is understandable why many believers see in this a sign of a Creator.

Davies looks at a series of different models that might otherwise explain this fitness for life, including:

• The "absurd universe": the universe does mysteriously permit life, but that is just the way it is: there is no point to it, and if it had been any different, we would not be here to debate it. Life is merely an extraordinary accident. Davies says that this is "probably the majority position among scientists". Stephen Hawking encapsulated this view in his remark that "the human race is just a chemical scum on a moderate-sized planet".

• The "multiverse": there are an unimaginable number of universes apart from the one that we inhabit. Statistically, some would have the right conditions for life, while many, many others would not. We are lucky to be in one of the ones that permit life. Richard Dawkins expressed some support for this view in his book, the God Delusion.

• The "God hypothesis": many scientists find this an unsatisfactory position because although it may help explain why life exists, it merely replaces that with another big question. How did God come to be? The monotheistic faiths, including Islam, hold that God is a necessary being. "Vision cannot comprehend Him, yet He comprehends all vision," the Qur'an says.

• The "self-explaining universe": I'd have summarised this here if I could have followed what Davies was trying to say. But I couldn't.

To be honest, there were large parts of Davies' book where I was just hopelessly out of my depth. It came as something of a mild consolation when, after going through the different models, Davies admitted that despite his personal preference for the "self-explaining" universe model:
"... they all seem to me to be either ridiculous or hopelessly inadequate ..."

This is an understandable conclusion. Life is amazing. Consciousness is beyond amazing. The great physicist Richard Feynman perhaps expressed it most poetically:

I stand at the seashore, alone, and start to think. There are the rushing waves ... mountains of molecules, each stupidly minding its own business ... trillions apart ... yet forming white surf in unison.

Ages on ages ... before any eyes could see ... year after year ... thunderously pounding the shore as now. For whom, for what?...on a dead planet, with no life to entertain.

Never at rest ... tortured by energy ... wasted prodigiously by the sun ... poured into space. A mite makes the sea roar.

Deep in the sea, all molecules repeat the patterns of one another till complex new ones are formed. They make others like themselves ... and a new dance starts.

Growing in size and complexity ... living things, masses of atoms, DNA, protein ... dancing a pattern ever more intricate.

Out of the cradle on to the dry land ... here it is standing ... atoms with consciousness ... matter with curiosity.

Stands at the sea ... wonders at wondering ... I ... a universe of atoms ... an atom in the universe.

(Richard Feynman, The Pleasure of Finding Things Out)

Some reader comments.....


GBR

very interesting post inayat. some might add: if time is infinite then one might expect a universe like ours to turn up eventually.

but i agree with you. when one thinks of existence, life, and consciousness...what a wonder!


Since nobody else is going to I will say that I plump for the multiverse with the addition that, as with Scroedinger's cat, it is only when a self aware observer (us) comes into existence that a universe within the multiverse comes into "real" existence.

This perhaps somewhat extended recent blog http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.com/2007/01/fermi-paradox.html gives my thoughts on this & its possible influence on the Fermi question (why haven't aliens arrived eons ago).


USA

THe weighing up of all available evidence points to the "Absurd Universe". There just isn't any evidence for the other three.

All evidence points to God being a man made idea.

There is no evidence of multiple universes.

The self explaining universe seems to me to be an scientists/atheists attempt to provide for our natural desire to find a higher purpose for life/existence.


USA

Another possibility is that the fundamental constants of the universe change with time. So at some point there's a good chance they'll be in a range where our sort of life can exist. I believe there were some papers on this last year or the year before.


GBR

Inayat, for a more interesting idea than the Goldilocks hypothesis, see the work of Lee Smolin. His evolving universes idea suggests that the laws of physics are *not* fixed and that we may indeed just happen to be in a universe suitable for life (for now). But it doesn't always have to be this way...

It's great stuff, and far more intellectually satisfying than cutting off inquiry by positing the God explanation each time.

This man may quite possibly rival Einstein in intellect and profundity:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Smolin


GBR

The universe is an accident. No intelligent designer would have come up with Pete Doherty. Or Jade Goody.


Sorry Cant Resist

There is a theory which states that if ever anybody discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.

Douglas Adams


GBR

"If certain physical constants such as Newton's gravitational constant, G, or the value of the strong and electromagnetic forces in atomic nuclei, were only very slightly different from what they actually are, Davies says that the universe would have been quite unsuitable to support any form of life."

What do we mean by "life"? And is there anything remarkable about it anyway?

We are atoms arranged into certain patterns. Our greatest ideas are patterns of electrical impulses. Our greatest art is merely re-arrangements of atoms, and our greatest feats of engineering and science just allow us to re-arrange more atoms faster, or produce different patterns of electrical impulses.

Viewed from the other side of the universe in a billion years' time we will be indistinguishable from all the other atoms and impulses.


GBR

This whole idea is daft - calculating the odds of the coincidences that came to allow life in it's present form to exist - all this rather pathetic line of thought has done is assume the present conclusion, life, is somehow unique, and must always be based upon mechanisms as found on earth at the present time.


So Inayat, god created all did he/it/her?

As regards patbatemans statement, ugly, offensive etc, just wanting to have a dig.

However, the comment regarding homosexuality; does not the Qur'an speak of god inventing man in all his differences, with only god able to judge him. If that is so where does religion fit into that statement? it does'nt!

Religion is just man's lust for power and immortality.

As regarding the universe: multiverse, with us only existing on one plane. Accretion theory for the planets, stars etc.

Why did god smash up the first universe?


DEU

Lacanian, still prefer the Anthropic Principle:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle

Its such a no brainer ... excuse the pun!


GBR

This whole thing is based on the false premise that in order for life to exist it requires the exact same conditions as life on earth. There's no reason to think that whatsoever.

Extremophiles - archaea and so on - can exist in conditions of immense heat or cold, low oxygen, intense acidity or total aridity. There is some indication of recent liquid water on Mars and other parts of the solar system like Enceladus (moon of Saturn) where we had recently thought it impossible.

It's my suspicion that life is absolutely abundant in the universe, and that the Goldilocks Principle is fundamentally unsound.


GBR

If there is a massive explosion many thousands of fragments of debris may fly for miles. All except one may hit nothing of any significance and will be ignored. One fragment may hit the centre of a dartboard. That may be a bit of a freak occurance but it only seems "miraculously" amazing if you predicted, ahead of time, that this one particular fragment would hit this one particular dartboard.

If, on the other hand, you surrounded the explosion with dartboards, coconut shies, archery targets, boys with apples on heads and an infinite number of other possible targets and didn't specify any particular fragment or any particular end result then everyone yawns if one or another target is hit.

In other words you are looking at the end result and assuming that this was the desired end result.

Personally, I would have preferred an end result where people didn't make up religious cr*p without evidence and even kill people who had the temerity to not believe said religious cr*p.


If we take it that there is a God who created everything, he must be very clever. So why would he chose someone like Muhammad to be his prophet?


GBR

"� The "self-explaining universe": I'd have summarised this here if I could have followed what Davies was trying to say. But I couldn't.

To be honest, there were large parts of Davies' book where I was just hopelessly out of my depth."

--------------------

A-hahaha. If only all CiF bloggers were as honest.

Nick Cohen: "I'd like to turn my attention to justifications for the Iraq war, but to be honest I'm hopelessly out of my depth."

Madeleine Bunting: "If I knew more about Islamic theology I would explain these apparent inconsistencies, but to be honest I'm hopelessly out of my depth"

Martin Kettle: "It is important that we stand by Tony Blair at this time, and I would explain why but in all honesty I'm hopelessly out of my depth."

What a fantastic precedent!


USA

Suggest for a hilarious look at the Universe, the Books "Small Gods" & "The Last Continent" by Terry Pratchett. He created the "Discworld" science fantasy series, which features "Discworld", a flat world which rides on t he back of a giant turtle, which is supported by four elephants! Looking at our own "roundworld" from the perspective of the Small God "OM", a Turtle God, is not only a great romp, but for me a relief as an American, from the oppressive fundamentalist right-wing Christian funk of depression blanketing my own country!


GBR

kmir

"if time is infinite then one might expect a universe like ours to turn up eventually"

I don't think this follows necessarily. With my voice I can produce literally an infinite variety of sounds but, even given infinite time, I couldn't produce a realistic impression of the sound of a jet engine as the laws of physics wouldn't allow it.

Infinite time doesn't mean that all possibilities are bound to occur.


GBR

@Inayat
This is not one of your better constructed blogs but when you say "This is an understandable conclusion. Life is amazing. Consciousness is beyond amazing" it's very difficult not to agree with you.

Science has made great strides in understanding development of the universe in terms of its geography and topology, but consciousness is still an area where there is much work to be done.


GBR

"The "self-explaining universe": I'd have summarised this here if I could have followed what Davies was trying to say. But I couldn't."

As I understand it, this is derived from quantum theory - which posits that the act of conscious observation is necessary to collapse quantum indeterminacies (such as "the singularity") into (in this case) the physical universe.

There are two strands, one is that consciousness arose within the singularity, which immediately collapsed into the physical universe (the self-aware universe): the other is that we are currently creating the beginning of the universe by our attempts to observe it - iow, causation is running backwards in this regard (the boot-strap theory).

As a theory, it has, in common with "the God hypothesis" and elements of the "multiverse" theory (thank you 9percentGrowth) the assumption - shared, indeed, with most of the world's largest religions* - that consciousness is a necessary pre-condition to enable the universe to have come into existence (and to continue in existence).

(*Hence, in Genesis, it is "Light" (namely, consciousness) which turns chaos (darkness, the void, the deep) into the physical universe. It was even more explicit in the Egyptian traditions from which Genesis was copied.)

PatBateman

"Even if the universe was 'created', it wasn't created by somebody who expected adulteres to be stoned to death, women and homosexuals to be denied their rights, or who would send everybody who didn't do what he said to a place called hell."

I quite agree. Even if the universe was self-aware, I'm sure it would have better things to do than regulate the activities of this tiny part of it.

thetrashheap

"THe weighing up of all available evidence points to the "Absurd Universe". There just isn't any evidence for the other three. "

That might have been true 60 or 70 years ago, but science (quantum theory in particular) has become very "spooky" of late. It may turn out to be wrong, but there is certainly evidence to support it.


GBR


"One answer, a glib answer, is just to say well, god made them (the laws of physics) that way, end of story. Well it is of course the end of discussion if that's point of view you take."

Paul Davies. 5/11/2006

Glib : readily fluent, often thoughtlessly, superficially, or insincerely so.


GBR

!"the idea of marvelling at the wonder of life from a religious perspective isn't as divisive as they wish it to be."
Why from a religious perspective, Trendywhitebuddhist? The universe is wonderful enough without dragging god into it. Why only life? It's wonderful enough whether or not life- and Mr Davies only actually means life like us- a rather restictive definition- is an inevitability or a purpose of it or not.


GBR

!"the idea of marvelling at the wonder of life from a religious perspective isn't as divisive as they wish it to be."
Why from a religious perspective, Trendywhitebuddhist? The universe is wonderful enough without dragging god into it. Why only life? It's wonderful enough whether or not life- and Mr Davies only actually means life like us- a rather restictive definition- is an inevitability or a purpose of it or not.

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GBR

Inayat

It's easy to be taken in by the orderedness of "the world" but this is illusory.

To explain, if you led an urban existence you'd see a tiny, man-made window on the world. Venture into the [English] countryside and the illusion is maintained. The landscape is dominated by overgrazed fields, crops and planned forests. All is As It Should Be.

Now travel overseas to the snout of a glacier. Here you will find a chaotic tumble of dirty ice and boulders, constantly shifting. Beautiful yet threatening. Then cross a desert, an ice-cap or an ocean.

We consider this a life-sustaining planet but if I were transported to a random longitude and latitude I would be all-but-certain to drown, freeze or die of heat exhaustion in short order. If I were to materialise at random co-ordinates in space, then asphixiation would be overwhelmingly likely, followed by frazzling in a star.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not a nihilist by any stretch. I will still bounce out of bed tomorrow morning, ready to start another day. I'm just saying we shouldn't kid ourselves that the universe is more perfect than it really is. It's just the best one we know about.

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GBR

!"the idea of marvelling at the wonder of life from a religious perspective isn't as divisive as they wish it to be."
Why from a religious perspective, Trendywhitebuddhist? The universe is wonderful enough without dragging god into it. Why only life? It's wonderful enough whether or not life- and Mr Davies only actually means life like us- a rather restictive definition- is an inevitability or a purpose of it or not.

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GBR


Inayat :

I think physicists seem to make the most sense to non physicists when they
( almost ) write prose poems. Maybe we are hardwired to get meaning in this way.

Think of anything else well conveyed in layers of poetry to a mass audience?


Don't give up with them. Please.

Peace

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GBR

'...Davies says that the universe would have been quite unsuitable to support any form of life'

What supreme and unforgiveable arrogance. Given the (apparent) size and scope of the universe, the endless permutations and possibilities that must exist 'out there', and the (minumal) amount of knowledge we humans possess, how can a statement like that be justified? We know so little about the universe that most of it is labelled 'dark matter' because we have no other way of explaining it. Tis absurd to make statements like the above when we humans are but an insignificant flash in the pan who don't even understand our own origins, let alone that of the universe. One more point; since the universe has (allegedly) been expanding ever since the 'big bang', just what in the hell has it been expanding into?

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Triainus for intelligence you don't need human style life butyou do need an environment that is capable of sustaining sizeable complex life. We may well find microbes on Mars but to not be alone in theuniversewe something more sapeint. Mars probably supplies nearly as life sustaining an environment as the interior of Antarctica but there are only microbes & lichen there. It took central Africa to evolve human beings.

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DEU

@9percentgroth-you are an Alien, I�m a probability equation. Paul Davis is uncertain Australian. The Enigma of Isadore Ducasse. i.e. the brown paper and string theory.

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GBR

Lacanian :

"His evolving universes idea suggests that the laws of physics are *not* fixed and that we may indeed just happen to be in a universe suitable for life (for now) "

Davies posits much the same idea , except he uses a quantum observer effect to introduce a causal loop between the ultimate concious fate of the universe and its initial state . Hence making the evolution of physical laws necessarily life producing because it is conscious life that picks the laws . At least I think that is his idea . I didn't quite understand it .

Smolin's ideas are interesting , but I'm not sure how they could be tested . Though I have to admit , gradual mutation and no selection as a mechanism for generating complex universes is conceptually quite elegant .


GBR

I am currently about half-way through Marcus Chown's latest book and he covers much the same ground as Davies.

He does, however, produce one hypothesis that is new to me by Stephen Wolfram, who suggests that our mathematical view of the universe is very constraining. He likens it to trying to understand the world on a dark night by looking at the patch of ground illuminated by a street lamp. Wolfram says that the explanation is much simpler than myriad equations that do not agree with each other; it is much more like a four line computer code.

Is anybody familiar with this theory? I am not a mathematician, so I cannot judge its validity.




GBR


"It came as something of a mild consolation when, after going through the different models, Davies admitted that despite his personal preference for the "self-explaining" universe model:
"... they all seem to me to be either ridiculous or hopelessly inadequate ..."
This is an understandable conclusion."

I don't think that is a 'conclusion'. The 'god made it' model is not scientific (glib), the 'no reason' scientific model results in absurdity and the 'multiverse' , in common with the preceding models all require explanations outside of the universe to be explained. Those are inadequate says Davies, and he proposes that explanations for why the universe is the way it is may be found within the universe, not outside of it.

At that point we then have to listen to how Davies says that might work. To stop at the point at which he finishes his explantion as to how and why he would look for explantions within the universe rather than outside of it and call that point a conclusion from which we might launch off into poetry and quoting the quran seems to me a rather pointless excercise which misses the point entirely, for those are the glib and absurd answers which he says are inadequate in the first place.


GBR

PEARL, I wasn't suggesting that an infinite amount of time *would* lead to a universe but that some people *might* think that it wasn't too surpsrising-not that it was an inevitability.

To those who say that we are *just* atoms fail, in my opinion, to take account of the fact of freedom..and if we are just atoms then we are a 'thinking reed' or aware of ourselves being atoms.

I don't know what an explanation *within* the universe would be or mean. Isn't part of the aim of a scientific explanation to get out of subjectivity ? And yet, how can we, who are part of that universe , form a conception of it that at once transcends our own point of view and yet contains the questioning subject at the same time?

I quite like the idea of science launching off into poetry; reminds me of what Simone Weil once said: necessity (the laws of science, say) is the veil of God.

Of course scientists can still look at the world with wonder, but I wonder if something hasn't been lost in a theoretical approach to life and the world?


SWE

SweeneyTodd: 'Another possibility is that the fundamental constants of the universe change with time. So at some point there's a good chance they'll be in a range where our sort of life can exist.'

Paul Davies does discuss this in his book. If I remember correctly, I think he said that more data is still needed before we can conclude that the fundamental constants do change with time.

Lacanian: 'Inayat, for a more interesting idea than the Goldilocks hypothesis, see the work of Lee Smolin. His evolving universes idea suggests that the laws of physics are *not* fixed and that we may indeed just happen to be in a universe suitable for life (for now). But it doesn't always have to be this way...'

Smolin's new book 'The Trouble With Physics' is out in the UK at the end of this month. I think the Guardian's science editor had it as one of his 'looking forward' listings at the end of last year. I might just inflict another blog on you all about it if I find it interesting! http://www.amazon.co.uk/Trouble-Physics-String-Theory-Science/dp/0713997990/sr=1-3/qid=1170692806/ref=sr_1_3/026-5678403-5105231?ie=UTF8&s=books

quirky: 'Seriously, I don't think we can ever know the origin of life and maybe it's better to live in doubt. Certainty about anything is very dangerous, whether it's about science or religion.'

The notion that our knowledge is limited and temporary and that we can perhaps only try to make better and better approximations to what is truth must be ranked as one of the most important contributions of science to our world.

Traianus: 'It's my suspicion that life is absolutely abundant in the universe, and that the Goldilocks Principle is fundamentally unsound.'

Davies also believes that life is abundant throughout the universe. The Goldilocks Enigma is about the universe as a whole, not just the Earth.

WheatFromChaff: See, I couldn't follow your explanation either! I know I must be dumb or a 'blithering idiot' as someone later says...

nabanab: 'I think physicists seem to make the most sense to non physicists when they ( almost ) write prose poems. Maybe we are hardwired to get meaning in this way. Think of anything else well conveyed in layers of poetry to a mass audience?'

Good point. ;-)


USA

What is noteworthy is that of all animate matter only a very tiny minority of humans ever think about the structure and significance of existence--i.e. the expanse and purpose of what humans call the universe. Limitlessness of matter--what is the tiniest portion of matter and what is the volume of the universe--seems to be a major precursor question before the big "why" question.

Of course, most humans never ponder such questions; they are too taken up with plotting the next meal or how to satisfy other organic needs.

But then the big question remains: why the huge waste of energy on the universe? If the laws of physics are efficient then it would certainly have been better to have a mostly empty universe--or just "nothing"--if that's possible.

The idea of a conscious creator it would seem is just childish anthropomorphic vanity--yet that's what a very substantial number of humans subscribe to.

So what shall it be? Stoicism or Epicureanism? Mill's happy pig or a depressed Socrates?


GBR

As Inyat's article shows all the running is being made by scientists, not theologians.

All the religious can do is stand on the sidelines and say "really, is that right? I didn't know that."

But what else can they do? Either their holy texts are meaningful and wrong, or they're hippy-dippy poetry that doesn't mean anything, such as the notion that the sky is solid (it can fall on you after all) and made of seven layers, one of which includes the stars:

http://www.infidels.org/library/modern/denis_giron/islamsci.html


GBR

Ye Heathen's! God made the Universe Father Dan told me.
There's far to many agitaters on this site, but God knows who the Aligator's are! so be careful.


ESP

If only Mr. Bunglawala would read more of the myriad 'popular' science books that are available. You'd have to wonder how he and all the strict adherents to the Abrahamic religions would manage to shoehorn all this 'evidential knowledge'into their sacred books and make it all fit.

I have been reading science books for the last forty years, I barely understand a word of them but I do sense the flavour and they most certainly impart a sense of wonder that might even be called religious. However this has nothing to do with most definitions of the word 'God'.

Mathematics is the language of the universe. Scientists deliver their discoveries to us through hopelessly inadequate metaphors. From what I hope I understand
correctly in my ramblings through biology, genetics, chaos theory, quantum physics etc. etc.is that there is a mental aspect to the universe as fundamental as matter/energy/time; the most glaringly obvious, as noted by other posters - the strong and weak anthropic principles.

No mind - no universe.


ESP

If only Mr. Bunglawala would read more of the myriad 'popular' science books that are available. You'd have to wonder how he and all the strict adherents to the Abrahamic religions would manage to shoehorn all this 'evidential knowledge'into their sacred books and make it all fit.

I have been reading science books for the last forty years, I barely understand a word of them but I do sense the flavour and they most certainly impart a sense of wonder that might even be called religious. However this has nothing to do with most definitions of the word 'God'.

Mathematics is the language of the universe. Scientists deliver their discoveries to us through hopelessly inadequate metaphors. From what I hope I understand
correctly in my ramblings through biology, genetics, chaos theory, quantum physics etc. etc.is that there is a mental aspect to the universe as fundamental as matter/energy/time; the most glaringly obvious, as noted by other posters - the strong and weak anthropic principles.

No mind - no universe.


GBR

kmir - the trouble is that we do not have an infinite amount of time. We now know - thanks largely to Einstein - that the universe had a beginning, and our best estimates are that it began approx. 15 billion years ago. Saying that it was always there simply isn't an option any more. Something caused the universe to come into being - like it or not.

There is not the slightest evidence for any universe other than our own, so there is no point considering the multiverse option.

The God hypothesis is the best we have because God is outside time and space, and only something (or someone) outside time and space can create a universe with these characteristics. Further, only God, being outside time and space, does not require a cause.

The God hypothesis also has the advantage of providing a plausible explanation for the existence of specified, complex information in DNA. The DNA code must have been written by something or someone, i.e. a code, like a novel, requires a writer.

Incidentally, it is far from arrogant to suggest that life is unique to this planet. The chance of life having evolved even once is so astronomical as to be statistically impossible. For it to also have occurred elsewhere in the universe would merely represent further evidence of design.


USA

What is noteworthy is that of all animate matter only a very tiny minority of humans ever think about the structure and significance of existence--i.e. the expanse and purpose of what humans call the universe. Limitlessness of matter--what is the tiniest portion of matter and what is the volume of the universe--seems to be a major precursor question before the big "why" question.

Of course, most humans never ponder such questions; they are too taken up with plotting the next meal or how to satisfy other organic needs.

But then the big question remains: why the huge waste of energy on the universe? If the laws of physics are efficient then it would certainly have been better to have a mostly empty universe--or just "nothing"--if that's possible.

The idea of a conscious creator it would seem is just childish anthropomorphic vanity--yet that's what a very substantial number of humans subscribe to.

So what shall it be? Stoicism or Epicureanism? Mill's happy pig or a depressed Socrates?

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Sunday, February 04, 2007

Mass turkey cull to halt bird flu

Tens of thousands of turkeys are being culled at a Suffolk farm as efforts continue to prevent the spread of a mass outbreak of bird flu.

Government vets say 50,000 turkeys have been gassed so far at the Bernard Matthews site near Lowestoft where the H5N1 strain of the virus was found.

reposted from: BBC Last Updated: Sunday, 4 February 2007, 20:24 GMT
my highlights / emphasis / edits

Officials, who said a further 100,000 birds would be killed, denied they had responded slowly to the outbreak.

Sealed lorry loads of carcasses are being taken 200 miles to be destroyed.

Compensation

Government vets said 50,000 turkeys had been gassed at the farm at Holton, about 27km south-west of Lowestoft, by 1300 GMT on Sunday.

The cull is expected to be completed by Monday morning.

Fourteen sealed lorries containing the bird carcasses were travelling to a rendering plant in Cheddleton, Staffordshire, on Sunday evening where they will be destroyed.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has confirmed that the Bernard Matthews company will be entitled to compensation for the slaughtered birds.

Map of Suffolk

The company could claim under the Animal Health Act 1981 the value of each bird just before slaughter as well as that of any eggs and property removed and destroyed, a spokesman said.

Investigations are continuing into how the disease, identified as the "highly pathogenic" Asian strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus, entered the poultry flock.

Some experts have suggested it might have been spread by wild birds.

The first turkeys died at the site on Tuesday and government vets were called in on Thursday after a vet for the Bernard Matthews company concluded the disease was "unidentifiable".

The authorities have denied their response was slow.

Fred Landeg, the government's deputy chief vet, said that although the company vet was called out on Tuesday, turkeys only began to die in significant numbers two days later, suggesting avian flu might be cause.

A farm foot bath

"The premises were immediately placed under restrictions and an investigation started," he said.

A biosecurity zone has been set up around the farm and poultry owners in the restricted area have been told to keep their flocks isolated from wild birds.

A three-kilometre protection zone and a 10km surveillance zone also remain in place around the farm site.

A much wider restricted zone covering 2,090 sq km is bordered by the A140 to the west and the A47 to the north and almost to Felixstowe in the south.

Health experts have been quick to quell fears the virus found in Suffolk could be passed on to humans.

The avian flu virus has so far killed 164 people worldwide - mainly in south-east Asia - since 2003. So far, all those who contracted the virus had come into close contact with infected birds.

Holton sign

Health Protection Agency chief executive Professor Pat Troop said the virus "doesn't pass easily from bird to human" and the risk to the general population from the outbreak was "very, very low".

But Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt said the government was taking the possibility of a human flu pandemic in Britain "very seriously".

The Department of Health had taken the advice of scientists and stockpiled enough of the Tamiflu anti-viral drug to cover a quarter of the population, she told ITV1's The Sunday Edition.

But agencies dealing with the Suffolk cull said they were confident it had been contained.

The virus has so far been detected in only one shed out of 22 at the site, and 100 of the 2,000 staff who work at the Holton farm have been given the Tamiflu anti-viral drug.

DEFRA CONTINGENCY PLAN

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A spokesman for the Bernard Matthews company said none of the affected birds had entered the food chain and there was no risk to public health.

Jill Korwin, assistant head of Trading Standards for Suffolk, added: "At the moment we are very encouraged that it has been contained."

But United Nations co-ordinator for bird flu, David Nabarro, has said farmers will have to get used to the presence of the disease in the UK as it is "going to be in bird populations for several years to come".

For more information call the Defra Helpline on 08459 33 55 77

If you have any pictures from the scene you can send them to yourpics@bbc.co.uk or text your pictures to 07725 100 100.

Bird flu map
Scene of outbreak
All poultry to be culled
Visitors disinfected and restricted access
3km Protection Zone
Poultry kept indoors and tested
10km Surveillance Zone
No movement of poultry to or from area except for slaughter
Trains carrying live poultry are prevented from stopping in the protection zone
Bird fairs and markets banned
Increased surveillance of wetland areas
Domestic birds not to share water used by wild birds
Footpath restrictions likely only on free-range farms
People in towns not affected unless they keep poultry.
Restriction Zone
Isolation of poultry from wild birds
Poultry movements to be licensed

World braced for huge surge in bird flu cases

· 160,000 turkeys slaughtered on farm
· Don't panic over food, plead experts
· Concern at delay in informing Defra

Robin McKie and Nick Mathiason
Sunday February 4, 2007
The Observer


All the turkeys on the affected farm near Lowestoft will be culled
All the turkeys on the affected farm near Lowestoft will be culled. Photograph: Chris Young/PA

reposted from: Observer
my highlights / emphasis / edits

The number of cases of the deadly bird flu virus is increasing around the world as scientists struggle to combat the disease that is now threatening to jump species and infect humans. The news comes as Britain confirmed its first ever case of H5N1 in a farm in Suffolk. More than 160,000 birds will now be slaughtered as the country's farming industry goes on high alert for more outbreaks.

As the authorities responded to the outbreak in Suffolk, local residents questioned why it had taken some 48 hours after the first chicks died last Tuesday for the government's Department of Food and Rural Affairs, Defra, to be informed.
But there was also wider concern. Japan and Nigeria have reported a series of cases of the lethal virus, and China, Egypt, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam have also revealed outbreaks in birds and in humans in the past two months. Indonesia began a mass bird cull in the capital city of Jakarta last Wednesday. At least 164 people are now known to have been killed by the disease across the globe.

The rapid spread of avian flu can be traced to the fact that the H5N1 virus is mutating as it spreads through birds and a variety of mammals including cats, tigers and pigs, said Robert Webster, a researcher at St Jude Children's Research Hospital, in Memphis, Tennessee.

Last night British health officials insisted the risk to the public was still negligible. It set in motion a series of emergency measures aimed at halting the spread of the disease among poultry in Britain. All the turkeys on the affected farm at Holton near Lowestoft, the largest poultry centre run by the breeder Bernard Matthews, are now being culled. Yesterday, piles of slaughtered birds were being scooped into open tractor trailers before being removed for incineration.

An exclusion zone of three-kilometres (nearly two miles) has been set up around the farm. All poultry in the area are to be kept indoors and tested for the H5N1 virus. A further 10km zone has been established in which all movements of poultry are banned, and last night another 2,090sq km restriction zone was created to isolate poultry from wild birds. Other measures will include a ban on bird shows, poultry markets and pigeon racing. This follows a decision by Defra to revoke the national general licence on bird gatherings.

Last night, the National Farmers' Union president, Peter Kendall, said his organisation had warned members to be vigilant. A spokesman for Matthews said his organisation could confirm there had been a case of H5N1 avian influenza at its Holton site. But he added: 'It is important to stress that there is no risk to consumers.'

Dr Andrew Landeg, the government's deputy chief veterinary officer, revealed he had called in ornithologists in a bid to understand how wild fowl - now thought to be the most likely source of the Suffolk outbreak - might have carried the virus into one of the 22 turkey breeding sheds at the farm. Officials also needed to know what other areas of the country might now be at risk of outbreaks.

Last night, it was revealed that Defra had identified several areas in Britain considered to be at particular risk of picking up H5N1 from infected wild fowl. The farm at Horton was one of them.

Avian flu expert Dr Colin Butter of the Institute of Animal Health said it was now crucial that veterinary scientists discover whether the farm was the first place this strain of flu had emerged. It could be that the outbreak was an 'unhappy chance event', or it could indicate a significant level of the disease in wild birds indigenous to the UK, which in turn would make the virus harder to stamp out. Exclusion zones and culling would not be sufficient to contain the virus, Butter added.

However, Landeg yesterday ruled out the alternative - the introduction of vaccinations for poultry, a measure already introduced in Holland - as being ineffective.

As a result, farmers with free-range flocks may face serious threats to their livelihood. However, one organic poultry producer said moves to house birds permanently indoors would be counter-productive. 'My birds are resistant to the range of diseases that affect conventional flocks because their immune systems have been boosted through living outdoors. I accept that as a new strain of bird flu, special measures may be required in the short-term, but these should not be at the expense of the principles of good husbandry.'

However, Landeg yesterday insisted that the disease could be contained. 'There's a good hope, if this is not the first case, we will be able to contain this disease.'

It was revealed last night that five people in Indonesia have died from the virus since the beginning of the year while Japan yesterday confirmed its fourth outbreak of H5N1 bird flu this year and Thailand has reported three outbreaks during the past month.

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Belief or not

  • 03 February 2007
  • David McMahon Mosman, New South Wales, Australia

Roy Sablosky writes to claim that atheism is not itself a belief (13 January, p 19).

But, to quote the Oxford English Dictionary, an atheist is "one who denies or disbelieves the existence of a God".

The correct term for someone who does not believe in the existence of a god, but does not assert the non-existence of a god, is "agnostic".

From Dave Minter

Roy Sablosky's letter reminds me of a signature line that I saw on a contribution to an online bulletin board.

It read: "If atheism is a faith, then not playing chess is a hobby."

London, UK

From issue 2589 of New Scientist magazine, 03 February 2007, page 21

Car drivers 'risking skin cancer'

Drivers who spend a lot of time behind the wheel increase their risk of skin cancer, US work suggests.

Experts say repeated sun exposure through the car's side windows is to blame, and drivers who roll down the window are at even greater risk.

Most glass used for windows blocks UVB rays that cause sunburn but not deeper penetrating UVA rays.

The Saint Louis University School of Medicine team presented their work to the American Academy of Dermatology.

reposted from: BBC

my highlights / emphasis / edits

Exposure

They looked at 898 patients (559 men and 339 women) with skin cancers occurring on either side of their body.

Among the men, the rate of cancers directly correlated to the areas of the body most often exposed to UV radiation while driving - which in the US is the left-hand side of the body.

Although glass greatly reduces the risk of sunburn, it does not prevent long term damage from UVA
Cancer Research UK

Many of these tumours were cancers that develop over time and are linked to cumulative sun exposure rather than intense, intermittent sun exposure.

They affected sun-exposed areas like the head, neck, arms and hands.

Lead author Dr Scott Fosko said: "This finding supports our theory that drivers who regularly spend more time in the car over the course of several years are more likely to develop skin cancers on the left side of the body, particularly skin cancers that develop gradually over time."

Windows open

Dr Fosko's team is now starting to gather detailed information on the driving habits of the skin cancer patients they see in their clinic.

Initial data shows that those who spend the most time per week driving a car are more likely to develop left-sided cancers.

"We're also finding that all drivers who occasionally drive with the windows open had a higher incidence of left-sided cancers," Dr Fosko said.

He added: "Since there are more cars on the road than ever before, it is likely that this trend will continue. And with more women driving...higher reports of left-sided skin cancers in women in the future."

Harmful rays

Most windscreens, unlike the side windows of a car, are made of laminated glass that can filter both UVB and UVA.

Dr Fosko suggested tinting the side window glass or using UV filters on windows might help reduce a driver's risk of harmful exposure.

Cancer Research UK advises: "Although glass greatly reduces the risk of sunburn, it does not prevent long term damage from UVA.

"So if you are driving long distances or sitting in your conservatory every day for long periods of time, with the sun beaming in on you, then you are putting yourself at risk."

But Josephine Querido, cancer information officer for the charity, stressed this did not necessarily mean that you would get skin cancer.

"In terms of the amount of UV sunlight people are exposed to during the course of a year, the amount received through car windows is likely to be a very small percentage.

"It is important to take care whenever you are exposed to the sun, to know your skin type, and, above all, never burn as this can double your risk of getting skin cancer," she said.

Bird flu in Sussex - Experts play down risk to humans

Last Updated: Saturday, 3 February 2007, 13:34 GMT


Experts play down risk to humans
Avian flu virus
Bird flu cannot pass easily between humans
Experts have stressed the outbreak of bird flu at a farm in Suffolk poses no immediate risk to human health.

The outbreak has been confirmed as the H5N1 strain of the virus which has infected 270 people, and killed 164 - most in south east Asia - since 2003.

However, the virus cannot easily pass from human to human at present.

reposted from: BBC
my highlights / emphasis / edits

So far, all those who have been infected have been poultry workers who have come into intimate contact with infected birds.

There is no immediate public health risk
Dr Colin Butter
Institute of Animal Health

Experts warn that if the virus acquires the ability to pass from human to human, then it will pose a potential threat to millions across the globe.

Health chiefs in the UK have warned that if such a modified strain does emerge then tens of thousands of people could die in Britain alone.

However, at present H5N1 remains overwhelmingly a disease of birds, and not humans.

So at present the threat to human health from the outbreak in Suffolk is minimal - particularly as it appears to have been rapidly contained.

Asia is key

Dr Colin Butter, a bird flu expert at the Institute of Animal Health, said: "This outbreak is no risk to the general public and will be controlled by culling.

It is exceedingly unlikely that any human is going to get sick as a result of H5N1 in one turkey farm in Britain at this time
Dr David Nabarro
United Nations

"The risk to public health is from a human pandemic which is not likely to originate in Europe.

"A pandemic of this type, if it does happen, is likely to occur in an area where people live side by side with birds, like in East Asia.

"So there is no immediate public health risk, but this is clearly something we need to get under control."

Dr David Nabarro, bird flu coordinator for the United Nations, also stressed that H5N1 posed little threat to humans.

He said: "It is exceedingly unlikely that any human is going to get sick as a result of H5N1 in one turkey farm in Britain at this time.

"The numbers of human cases are very, very small indeed, even though the virus has been moving through poultry in at least 50 countries in the last year, and led to millions of birds dying.

"This is really not a human disease, it is a poultry disease."

Farm workers

Peter Kendall, president of the National Farmers' Union, said the workers on the Suffolk farm were also unlikely to be at risk.

He said poultry workers in south east Asia effectively lived with their birds, and had far closer contact than any of their counterparts in the UK.

"On a modern poultry farm a lot of the feeding is done mechanically, and the involvement of the workers with the poultry is really minimalised."

Dr Maria Zambon, from the Health Protection Agency, said farm workers who had come into contact with infected birds, and those involved in the culling process would be offered the anti-viral drug tamiflu as a precaution.

She stressed that nobody had developed symptoms of bird flu following similar outbreaks among farm birds in continental Europe.

David Catlow, president of the British Veterinary Association, said the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs had acted quickly to contain and isolate the outbreak.

He stressed that the public were safe to continue eating poultry.

Virus mix

The H5N1 virus is most likely to acquire the ability to pass easily from human to human if it mixes with a standard flu virus, and swaps genetic material.

This could happen if H5N1 infects a human - or other animal - which is already infected with standard flu.

To minimise the risk of this happening in the UK, the Department of Health recently announced that it would offer seasonal flu vaccine to poultry workers across England.

The theory is that if poultry workers are kept free of normal flu, then even in the highly unlikely event that they were infected with H5N1, the bird flu virus would not come into contact with its cousin.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

The Higgs particle just got 8% lighter

The Higgs particle just got a bit lighter, and the race to find it a little tighter, thanks to the most precise measurement yet of the mass of the W boson.

Physicists at the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) near Chicago announced on Monday that the W boson - one of the particles that mediate the weak nuclear force - has a mass of 80.413 gigaelectronvolts (GeV).

reposted from: New Scientist 13 January 2007
my highlights / emphasis / edits

The standard model of particle physics links the masses of W boson, the "top" quark and the Higgs boson. Using the newly measured mass of the W and the already well-known mass of the top quark, the team recalculated the predicted mass of the elusive Higgs, which is thought to give all other particles their mass. The upper limit for the mass of the Higgs is now 153 GeV, down from the previous limit of 166 GeV.

Physicists already know that the Higgs is heavier than 114 GeV, because searches up to that energy have found nothing.

Until now, the Large Hadron Collider at CERN near Geneva, due to start working later this year, was the firm favourite to find the Higgs. But the lighter Higgs is well within the range of the Tevatron collider running at Fermilab. "For us at the Tevatron and CDF, it is very good news," says Mark Lancaster, CDF team member at University College London.

If the colliders do not find the Higgs at these energies, physicists will be forced to look beyond the standard model.

From issue 2586 of New Scientist magazine, 13 January 2007, page 5

H5N1 bird flu outbreak confirmed on English farm

  • 13:25 03 February 2007
  • NewScientist.com news service
  • New Scientist, Reuters and AFP

An outbreak of bird flu on a farm run by Europe's biggest turkey manufacturer Bernard Matthews is the highly pathogenic H5N1 version of the virus which can kill humans, the European Commission said on Saturday.

Government veterinary experts were called to the farm near Lowestoft in eastern England late on Thursday after the death of 2500 birds. The UK government is enforcing EU-agreed controls to contain the outbreak, which involves setting up a protection zone with a radius of 3 kilometres (2 miles) and a surveillance zone of 10 km around the infected farm.

reposted from: New Scientist
my highlights / emphasis / edits

It is the second confirmed case of H5N1 in the 27-country European Union in 2007, following one in Hungary.

The farm has 160,000 turkeys, but only one of the 22 sheds that house the birds has so far been affected by the outbreak. Strict movement controls are in place, poultry must be kept indoors, bird shows and pigeon racing are prohibited, and on-farm biosecurity measures will be strengthened.

The H5N1 virus is known to have infected 270 people and killed at least 164 worldwide since 2003, most of them in Asia, and over 200 million birds have died from it or have been killed to prevent its spread. (Find out more in our Bird Flu special report.)

Surprising timing

Avian flu expert Colin Butter, at the UK's Institute of Animal Health, said: "This news is a bit surprising because it's not the time of year when we have a lot of bird migration. If it was going to happen we would expect it to happen in spring, not the middle of winter."

He said it is now crucial to find out if this is the only outbreak, or whether it has spread from another, as-yet-undiscovered outbreak. "If this is a secondary case it is much more serious. If this is the first case, and we can stamp it out, the outbreak will be controlled."

John Oxford, a virologist at London's Queen Mary's School of Medicine, told the BBC he was confident that the outbreak could be contained: "I don't think it has made any difference to the threat to the human population."

Wild swan

The highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 bird flu was found before in the UK, when a wild swan was discovered dead in Scotland in March 2006 (see UK's first case of H5N1 bird flu confirmed). It was thought to have caught the disease elsewhere, died at sea and been washed ashore.

In May 2006, 50,000 chickens at three farms in Norfolk, also in eastern England and home to some of Europe's biggest poultry farms, were culled after the H7N3 strain was detected. Farming leaders said those two scares cost the UK poultry industry 58 million pounds ($115 million) in 2006.

Peter Kendall, president of the National Farmers' Union, urged consumers not to stop buying poultry because of the outbreak: "We're encouraging all farmers to be incredibly vigilant, and look at their flocks carefully. We do need to reassure consumers, however, that this is not an issue about safety of poultry."

Bernard Matthews said in a statement: "There has been a case of H5N1 avian influenza at the Holton site, but it is important to stress that none of the affected birds have entered the food chain."

Bird Flu - Learn more about the flu pandemic that could kill millions in our continually updated special report.

Tests show bird flu is H5N1 virus in Norfolk

Last Updated: Saturday, 3 February 2007, 16:11 GMT
Tests show bird flu is H5N1 virus
A person in protective wear moves around the turkey farm in Holton, Suffolk
People at the farm in Suffolk are having to wear protective clothing
The avian flu which killed 2,600 turkeys at a Suffolk farm has been confirmed as the H5N1 virus.

That strain can be fatal if it is passed on to humans but experts said the outbreak was being contained and posed little danger to people.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the European Commission carried out virus tests at laboratories in Weybridge, Surrey.

The 159,000 other turkeys on the farm will now have to be slaughtered.

A three-kilometre protection zone and a 10km surveillance zone will be set up around Holton, which is approximately 27km south-west of Lowestoft.

Map of Suffolk

A Defra statement said further tests to characterise the virus were under way in order to ascertain whether or not it is the Asian strain.

It is the first case on a UK commercial farm of infection with the H5N1 strain, which has killed 164 people worldwide - mainly in south-east Asia - since 2003.

However, the virus cannot pass from human to human at present.

So far, all those who have been infected worldwide have come into intimate contact with infected birds.

Vaccinations

Fred Landeg, Britain's Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer, said an investigation was under way but the most likely source of the outbreak was wild birds.

He told BBC News that vaccinations for poultry were not currently being considered.

"There are a number of problems with vaccination in that it takes about three weeks to get immunity."

DEFRA CONTINGENCY PLAN

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Mr Landeg said the turkeys at the farm had been too young to enter the food chain and no birds or produce had moved off the site.

Dr Maria Zambon, from the Health Protection Agency, said farm workers who had come into contact with infected birds, and those involved in the culling process, would be offered the anti-viral drug tamiflu as a precaution.

She stressed that nobody had developed symptoms of bird flu following similar outbreaks among farm birds in continental Europe.

Vets were called to the Bernard Matthews farm on Thursday night.

The company said it was confident the outbreak had been contained and there was no risk to consumers.

Bird flu map

National Farmers Union president Peter Kendall told BBC News 24 the priority would be eradicating the outbreak.

"[We will be] making sure we get the message across about how well this will be managed and controlled.

"We're encouraging all farmers to be incredibly vigilant, look at their flocks carefully and we do need to reassure consumers that this is not an issue about the safety of poultry - it's completely safe to eat."

Defra has revoked the national general licence on bird gatherings and bird shows and pigeon racing will not be permitted.

Detergent

Professor John Oxford, a virologist at the London Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, said he was confident the outbreak could be contained.

He said: "I don't think it has made any difference as a threat to the human population. The most likely explanation is that a small bird has come in through a ventilation shaft.

"One good thing about this virus is that it's easily destroyed. You can kill it with a bit of detergent."

Dr Oxford also said that while four strains of the H5N1 virus have been identified so far, all are deadly to birds and show potential of being harmful to humans.

He said that identifying the particular strain found in Suffolk will help scientists work out how the disease is moving around the world.

HAVE YOUR SAY
The people most at risk are farmers and their families
Andrew Olgado, London

In May last year, more than 50,000 chickens were culled after an outbreak of the H7 bird flu in farms in the neighbouring county of Norfolk.

One member of staff at the farm contracted the disease and was treated for an eye infection.

In March 2006, a wild swan found dead in Cellardyke, Fife, was found to have the H5N1 strain of the virus.

For more information call the Defra Helpline on 08459 33 55 77

WHEN BIRD FLU HITS THE UK
Graphic showing the measures to be taken following an outbreak of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in the UK (BBC)
1: Scene of outbreak
All poultry to be culled
Visitors disinfected and restricted access
2: 3km Protection Zone
Poultry kept indoors and tested
3: 10km Surveillance Zone
No movement of poultry to or from area except for slaughter
Rail transport restricted to non-stopping movements
Bird fairs and markets banned
Increased surveillance of wetland areas
Domestic birds not to share water used by wild birds
Footpath restrictions likely only on free-range farms
People in towns not affected unless they keep poultry.
Source: Defra