UNITED NATIONS - Status of the World

UNITED NATIONS (AFP) - -

Despite daunting challenges posed by global warming, water, energy, unemployment and terrorism, the world faces a brighter future with fewer wars, higher life expectancy and improved literacy,

according to a report released Monday.

"Although great human tragedies like Iraq and Darfur dominate the news,

the vast majority of the world is living in peace, conflicts actually decreased over the past decade,

" says the 2007 State of the Future report.

Published by the World Federation of UN associations, a global network of associations in more than 100 member states, the study noted that

the number of African conflicts fell from a peak of 16 in 2002 to five in 2005 and the number of refugees around the world is falling.

It said the world economy grew at 5.4 percent last year to 66 trillion dollars while the global population rose 1.1 percent, increasing the average world per capita income by 4.3 percent.

"At this rate world poverty will be cut by more than half between 2000 and 2015

, meeting the UN Millenium Development Goal for poverty reduction except in sub-Saharan Africa", it added.

The world's average life expectancy is rising from 48 years for those born in 1955 to 73 years for those who will be born in 2025

, it noted.

On the education front,

the percentage of people over the age of 15 that are illiterate worldwide has fallen to 18 percent today, down from 37 percent in 1970

, according to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.

The study said

that over a billion people (17.5 percent of the world's total) are now connected to the Internet.

And the digital divide is closing "and may continue to do so as orders from 178-dollar laptop computers developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology "have been requested in lots of 250,000 by Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Nigeria, Libya, Pakistan and Thailand," it added.

HIV/AIDS in Africa meanwhile has begun to level off and could begin to actually decrease over the next few years, although it continues to spread rapidly in Eastern Europe and in Central and South Asia, the study said.

Among other bright spots, the report cited

higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality, increased literacy and increases in gross domestic products per capita and in the number of Internet users.

On the negative side, it pointed to

hikes in CO2 emissions, terrorism, corruption, global warming and unemployment and a decrease in percentage of voting populations.

And on a truly scary note, the report warned that

pharmaceutical and chemical data bases widely available and organized crime's access to nuclear materials "give single individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction -- from biological weapons to low-level nuclear (so-called "dirty") bombs".

It said the UN nuclear watchdog agency reported

149 confirmed incidents of illicit use of radioactive materials in 2006.

Persistent inequality is illustrated by figures showing that

two percent of people own 50 percent of the world's wealth while the poorest 50 percent own only one percent.

The income of the richest 225 people in the world equals that of the poorest 2.7 billion or 40 percent of the global population

, the report said.

It warned that unless 15 key transnational challenges are met -- among them reducing the gap between rich and poor, combating new or reemerging diseases, organized crime and gender violence -- "the future could be bleak, marred by lack of water and arable land, mass migrations, turbulent climates, economic chaos and other disasters."

Solutions, it noted, include a "global energy development program led by the United States and China, breakthroughs in water desalination and the restructuring of educational systems to boost both individuals and collective intelligence."

More than 2,400 policy-makers, academics, futurists and creative minds from around the world have contributed to State of the Future reports over the past 11 years.

"This is the most vetted, longest lasting, cumulative integrated futures research project in history ... It offers collective intelligence for the planet,"

said Jerome Glenn, head of the Millennium Project, which each year updates and expands the State of the Future.

Action plan for killer asteroids

By Jonathan Fildes Science and technology reporter, BBC News, San Francisco

Nasa is tracking many asteroids

A draft UN treaty to determine what would have to be done if a giant asteroid was on a collision course with Earth is to be drawn up this year.

VIDEO AND AUDIO NEWS - A large asteroid could endanger life on earth

The document would set out global policies including who should be in charge of plans to deflect any object.

It is the brainchild of the Association of Space Explorers, a professional body for astronauts and cosmonauts.

At the moment, Nasa is monitoring 127 near-Earth objects (NEO) that have a possibility of hitting the Earth.

The association has asked a group of scientists, lawyers, diplomats and insurance experts to draw up the recommendations.

The group will have its first meeting in Strasbourg in May this year. It is hoped the final document will be presented to the UN in 2009.

"We believe there needs to be a decision process spelled out and adopted by the United Nations," said Dr Russell Schweickart, one of the Apollo 9 astronauts and founder of the Association of Space Explorers.

Known threat

The threat of an asteroid hitting the Earth is being taken more and more seriously as more and more NEOs are found.

In the US, Congress has charged Nasa with the task of starting a more detailed search for life-threatening space rocks.

"Congress has said that Nasa's efforts to date are not sufficient to the threat," said the US space agency's Dr Steven Chesley.

"They have changed Nasa's targets so that the cataloguing and tracking of asteroids is part of its mandate."

Congress has asked the agency to mount a much more aggressive survey.

At the moment, Nasa tracks all objects greater than 700m (2,300ft) in diameter. The agency's new goal is to track all objects greater than 70m (230ft) in diameter.

To do this, the agency needs to use a new suite of telescopes.

Alternatives include building a new Nasa-owned system or investing in other proposed telescopes such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) or the Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System (Pan-Starrs).

Pan-Starrs is a wide-field telescope being developed at the University of Hawaii, whilst the LSST is a proposed ground-based instrument being developed by the not-for-profit LSST corporation based in the US.

Nasa estimates that there are about 20,000 potentially threatening asteroids yet to be discovered.

"Out of those thousands, there will be without question many that look like they might hit the Earth with a high enough probability that the public and everyone else will be concerned," said Dr Schweickart.

"This has gone from being an esoteric statistical argument to talking about real events," added Dr David Morrison, an astronomer at the Nasa's Ames Research Center.

Future plans

The UN draft treaty would establish who should be in charge in the event of an asteroid heading towards Earth, who would pay for relief efforts and the policies that should be adopted.

In addition, it would set out possible plans to deflect the object.

Ideas could include hitting the asteroid with a spacecraft or rocket to deflect its orbit.

Other less destructive proposals include a "gravity tug" that would simply hover over the asteroid and use gravity as a "towline" to change its path.

But any decision to deflect an NEO could come with its own set of conundrums for the UN, as changing its path may simply alter its final target.

"It's important to understand when you start to deflect an asteroid that certain countries are going to have accept an increase in risk to their populations in order to take the risk to zero for everyone," said Dr Schweickart.

It is difficult decisions like this that can only be addressed by the UN, the Association of Space Explorers believes.

And it is under no illusion that the process can be sorted out quickly.

"You have to act when things look like they are going to happen - if you wait until you know for certain, it's too late," said Dr Schweickart.

Experts who will draw up the treaty include Lord Rees, the English Astronomer Royal and head of the Royal Society; the ex-director of science at the European Space Agency, Roger Bonnet; and former UK government advisor Sir Crispin Tickell.

The proposals were outlined at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in San Francisco, US.

reposted from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6370817.stm
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